April typically showers stock investors with gains — but this year is no sure bet
Between tax season and early sell-in-May activity, investors shouldn’t count on an April rally
By Mark Hulbert
Last Updated: April 1, 2026 at 10:30 a.m. ET
First Published: April 1, 2026 at 8:25 a.m. ET
April may not be the cruelest month — but it is a riskier one.Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto
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Some Wall Street analysts are insisting that April — contrary to its label as the cruelest month — is actually one of the better months for the U.S. stock market.
Consider that, over the past century, the S&P 500
SPX+0.72% (or its predecessor index) has gained 1.3% on average in April — close to double the all-month average of 0.7%. But, as the green columns in the chart below indicate, three other months post average returns on par with those of April (shown as No. 4 for the fourth month), with one month, July (or No. 7), significantly better.
The chart also shows the first half of April being notably strong for stocks. That’s for at least two reasons, according to some of the newsletter editors I regularly monitor. One is the Federal Reserve’s desire to keep economywide liquidity stable at a time when taxpayers are sending potentially large sums to the IRS. Another is that taxpayers can reduce their tax burdens by investing in an IRA before April 15. Much of the additional liquidity and IRA contributions presumably make their way into the stock market.
These are nice theories, but they are not borne out by the data, as the red columns in the chart show. So while April’s average first-half return is above average, it is not statistically significant.
Season’s grating
One caveat that investors should be aware of: April marks the end of the six-month period that is believed to have positive seasonality for stocks. April, therefore, is a month in which some investors look for opportunities to sell rather than wait until May (recall the adage “sell in May and go away”). Last year, for example, Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and the Almanac Investor Newsletter, who recommends jumping the gun in this way, exited stocks on April 3 — almost a full month in advance of the usual sell date.
The bottom line: You may want to remain invested in equities during April or even increase your holdings. If you do, though, it shouldn’t be because of the calendar. Given the year-to-year volatility in monthly returns, April’s advantage over other months is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to assess whether a pattern is genuine. That means it would be too risky for you to bet that April will be a good month for the stock market.
Mark Hulbert is a regular contributor to MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. He can be reached at mark@hulbertratings.com
More: A wild first quarter comes to an end: 6 charts that defined a chaotic stretch for stocks
Also read: Stocks surge, ending a tough March on a high note. But there’s skepticism about the rally.
About the Author
Mark Hulbert is a columnist for MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings service tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited.
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