Dow Jones Futures Fall; Trump Tariffs, Government Shutdown, Big Earnings In Focus

ED CARSON
Updated 11:07 PM ET 01/25/2026

Dow Jones futures fell slightly Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META) and Apple (AAPL) headline a massive week of earnings.

President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if it makes a trade deal with China, a big reversal from a week earlier. Separately, risks of a government shutdown suddenly jumped.↑XNOW PLAYINGTesla, GE Vernova And Boeing Headline Week Packed With Mega Cap Earnings

The stock market rally tumbled to start last week, but recovered to close slightly lower amid President Trump’s abrupt Greenland shifts. The major indexes finished above key levels.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures sank 0.2% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures lost 0.25% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.

President Trump’s Canada tariff threat continues a recent pattern of making market-moving news over the weekend, when markets and futures aren’t active.

Meanwhile, risks are rising of another government shutdown at the end of next week. Senate Democrats are threatening to block a big spending package unless Republicans strip out Homeland Security funding in the wake of the Border Patrol’s deadly shooting in Minneapolis.

Finally, a brutal winter storm was hitting much of U.S. east of the Rockies, disrupting thousands of flights and likely reducing business activity on Monday.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

In addition to the four megacaps, Boeing (BA), GE Vernova (GEV), Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), ASML (ASML), Carpenter Technology (CRS) and Nextpower (NXT) are among the many other notable reports.

Many are extended, especially Sandisk and Lam Research. Microsoft, Meta and Apple are struggling, but their guidance and capital spending outlooks will be key for the market.

But Boeing, GE Vernova, Nextpower, Carpenter Technology, Caterpillar and Tesla stock are in or near buy areas heading into results.

The Federal Reserve meets this week, with a policy announcement due Wednesday afternoon. Policymakers are expected to hold off on rate cuts until June.

Nextpower stock is on the IBD 50. Microsoft stock and KLA are on IBD Long-Term Leaders.

Trump Threatens 100% Canada Tariff

President Trump threatened massive tariffs on all Canadian goods if Prime Minister Mark Carney reaches a trade deal with China.

“If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the USA,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social site.

Last week China and Canada agreed to lower some tariffs focused on Canadian agriculture and Chinese EVs, but that’s more about resolving a dispute vs. a broad pact.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday clarified that the 100% tariff threat would apply if Canada and China sign a free trade agreement.

Just a week earlier, Trump supported PM Carney’s efforts to make a China trade agreement. “That’s what he should be doing. I mean, it’s a good thing for him to sign a trade deal. If you can get a deal with China, you should do that.”

The U.S. currently has a a 35% tariff on Canadian wares, but that doesn’t apply to goods under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which are tariff. A big tariff on all Canadian products would have a massive disruption on the U.S. auto industry, as well as raise energy costs.

Carney and Trump exchanged nasty comments in recent days, in part over Greenland. In Saturday’s post, Trump referred to “Governor Carney,” as he continues to suggest that Canada should be part of the U.S.

Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally lost ground last week but also showed resilience. The key indexes tumbled on Tuesday following President Trump’s Greenland tariff threat, but rebounded as he backed off on Wednesday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which briefly undercut their 50-day lines, finished back above their 21-day lines, not far from record levels. Small caps hit fresh highs before retreating Friday as regional banks gave up gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.5% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index lost 0.35%. The Nasdaq composite edged down less than 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.3%.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) edged down 0.1%. The Direxion Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted ETF (QQQE) climbed 0.6%. Both hit record highs during the week.

Biotechs, metals and energy were strong performers. Chips continued to perform well, in large part due to memory plays and semiconductor-equipment makers that are reporting this coming week.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose a fraction to 4.24% after spiking to 4.31% intraday Tuesday.

U.S. crude oil futures climbed 2.9% to $61.07 a barrel, almost entirely on Friday as President Trump said an “armada” of warships is headed to the Mideast, reigniting risks of military attacks vs. Iran.

IBD Newsletters

Get exclusive IBD analysis and actionable news daily.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) gained 2.9% last week, though much of that reflected gold plays. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) fell 0.6%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) lost a fraction. Lam Research, KLA and ASML stock are all SMH holdings.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 1.2% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) rose 2.5%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rallied 5.9% last week. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) descended 1.5%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) stepped down 1.7%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) popped 3.15% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) advanced 1.1%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) sank 1.6%, with Caterpillar, Boeing and GE Vernova stock all major holdings. The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) declined 2.5%.

Best Growth Stocks To Buy And Watch

Tesla Earnings

Tesla earnings are expected to tumble 38% vs. a year earlier to 45 cents a share, capping a third straight year of declining profits. Q4 revenue should fall 4% to $24.77 billion.

But the focus will be on the earnings call, with CEO Elon Musk expected to discuss self-driving vehicles, the Optimus robot and more.

On Thursday, Musk confirmed that Tesla has removed safety monitors from some robotaxis in Austin, Texas. However, investors would like clarity on whether those monitors have simply moved to chase vehicles that are following the robotaxis. It’s also unclear if there have been any robotaxi rides without safety monitors in the vehicles since Thursday.

Meanwhile, Tesla has discontinued Autopilot for new EV purchases in the U.S. and Canada, with Musk suggesting supervised Full Self-Driving subscription rates may be rising soon. Tesla already plans to end outright FSD purchases for $8,000 after Feb. 14.

Tesla forecasts on 2026 deliveries will be important, but those will depend to a great extent on whether robotaxis and FSD will become truly unsupervised.

Tesla Stock

Tesla stock hit a two-month low amid Tuesday’s market sell-off, but rebounded to reclaim the 50-day and 21-day lines later on. Shares rose 2.6% to 499.06 for the week. That offers an early entry but upcoming earnings make that risky. TSLA stock is on track to have a new base after this coming week with a 498.83 buy point.

Microsoft, Meta, Apple On Deck

Three other megacaps are on tap this coming week.

All three have been in downturns, though Microsoft and Meta bounced late last week. But investors will be looking for guidance, especially capital spending plans that are key for the AI boom.

Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing growth also is important, along with other efforts to monetize AI effectively.

Google, Lilly Lead Five Stocks Near Buy Points

What To Do Now

The stock market rally weathered whipsaw action around Trump with a mixed week but with all the indexes in strong positions. Leading stocks are generally acting well, with a number in buy zones or close.

However, the next few weeks are the heart of earnings season. Pay close attention, and not just for results from specific companies that you hold positions in. That’s especially true for chip plays and anything to do with the AI buildout.

Being heavily concentrated in a particular theme, especially in high-beta names, is especially risky during earnings season.

Investors should be looking for buying opportunities, making incremental buys to add exposure or reshuffle portfolios.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE:

Why This IBD Tool Simplifies The Sear ch For Top Stocks

Catch The Next Big Winning Stock With MarketSurge

Want To Get Quick Profits And Avoid Big Losses? Try SwingTrader

IBD Digital: Unlock IBD’s Premium Stock Lists, Tools And Analysis Today

How To Invest: Rules For When To Buy And Sell Stocks In Bull And Bear Markets