JPMorgan to Kick Off Earnings. Credit Cards Are In Focus.
Jan 12, 2026, 4:01 pm EST
JPMorgan’s earnings are hitting just after President Donald Trump issued a demand for a cap on credit card interest rates. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Key Points
About This Summary
- JPMorgan Chase’s fourth-quarter profit is expected to have risen, with analysts forecasting $4.85 a share on $46.17 billion revenue.
- JPMorgan’s stock rose 34% in 2025, and its market value surpassed $900 billion for the first time this month.
- The bank projects full-year 2026 expenses to rise 9% to $105 billion and net interest income to increase 3% to $95 billion.
Wall Street expects JPMorgan Chase’s fourth-quarter profit to have risen from a year ago when it releases results Tuesday, while investors will look for executives’ commentary on the credit card business, the outlook for expenses and revenue, and the dealmaking environment.
The firm’s card offerings were top of mind ahead of the report. Shares of JPMorgan and rivals dropped Monday after President Donald Trump said in a post on social media that he would call for a temporary, 10% limit on the interest rates that issuers charge credit cardholders.
That could crimp lenders’ profits. Though analysts say Trump doesn’t have the authority to institute such a cap unilaterally, his comment weighed on the sector. JPMorgan’s
JPM-1.43% cards business is set to expand as it becomes the new issuer of the AppleAAPL+0.34% Card, taking on more than $20 billion of card balances from the previous issuer, Goldman Sachs.
Analysts expect JPMorgan to report earnings of $4.85 a share on revenue of $46.17 billion, according to data compiled by FactSet.
JPMorgan’s stock has bounced back after a dip in December. Marianne Lake, the head of JPMorgan’s consumer and community bank, said last month that expenses for 2026 would rise further than analysts expected, sending shares lower by nearly 5%.
Lake said “high-quality” costs—such as investments in artificial intelligence technology and higher incentive-related compensation—were largely driving higher expenses.
That forecast may also be conservative. JPMorgan’s expenses have come in below its guidance in recent years, Wells Fargo
WFC-1.03% bank analyst Mike Mayo noted. That was the case in 2019, 2020, 2022, and 2023, he said.
The firm has said full-year expenses should rise 9% to $105 billion while net interest income excluding the markets business should rise 3% in 2026 to $95 billion. For full-year 2025, cards’ net charge-offs—a core measure of credit quality—should turn out to be 3.3%, the bank said.
JPMorgan’s expense guidance “has actually quieted some fears,” Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers wrote in a recent client note, citing conversations with investors. While some banks will come out with their new 2026 guidance this week, Siefers said, “there is now little risk to [JPMorgan’s] since the cat is already out of the bag on expenses.”
The bank’s shares rose 34% in 2025 while the S&P 500 climbed 16% in the same time. This month JPMorgan’s market value crossed above $900 billion on a closing basis for the first time, according to Dow Jones Market Data, just the 13th U.S. company to do so.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the bank reported earnings of $4.81 a share on revenue of $42.77 billion. JPMorgan, led by longtime Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, booked its most profitable year on record in 2024, with net income of $58.5 billion.
Write to Rebecca Ungarino at rebecca.ungarino@barrons.com
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