Stock Market Week Ahead: A Trillion-Dollar Shopping Season

ALAN R. ELLIOTT
08:32 AM ET 11/22/2025

The stock market took back some ground on Friday, but not enough to prevent a third weekly loss for the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 also ended the week lower, its second down-week this month. The Nasdaq closed Friday 7% below its late-October high. The S&P 500 is off not quite 5%.

But both indexes have broken support at their 10-week moving averages. Both also during the week undercut prior lows from Oct. 10. That leaves wide open the question of where the market heads next. So, heading into what would normally be a quiet Thanksgiving holding week, investors should buckle up just in case.See All Videos

After weeks of Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Palantir (PLTR) and Nvidia (NVDA), the earnings calendar is much quieter in November’s final week. China’s Alibaba Holdings (BABA), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Dell Technologies (DELL) and Deere (DE) are some of the headline names. The holiday shopping season begins its early ramp up, ahead of the Black Friday launch.

And investors, economists and the Fed will continue trying to sort questions of just where the U.S. economy stands, after the six-week federal shutdown has left a gap in the stock market’s usual diet of economic data.

Stocks To Watch: Five Leaders Holding Their Ground

The keyword for investors, after a week in which the major indexes broke decisively below their 50-day lines, is “watch.” Investors should limit their market exposure and avoid making buys. But keep working on watchlists, focusing on stocks showing healthy relative strength. Good examples include CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), RTX (RTX), TJX Cos. (TJX) and Medpace (MEDP) are in defensive or defensive growth sectors that tend to fare relatively well. TJX is at the top of a buy zone, CBOE eased back below its buy point on Friday. Medpace just finished up a four-weeks tight pattern. RTX pulled back in a test of support at its 10-week moving average.

S&P 500 Retailer Leads 5 Stocks To Watch In Tough Market

Stock Market Econ: Improvising An Economic Outlook

Investors — and the Fed — will largely have to go without official government data leading up to the Dec. 10 interest-rate decision. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has canceled the October CPI due to a lack of data collection during the government shutdown. The October jobs report also will be a casualty of the shutdown, and the BLS delayed the November jobs report until Dec. 16. Employment data from payroll processor ADP has taken on more importance amid the dearth of government data. ADP will release its four-week average of private-sector job growth on Tuesday. Both retail sales and the producer price index for September are out Tuesday morning.

Both retail sales and the producer price index for September are out Tuesday morning, along with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index.

Big Tech: China’s Cloud King To Report

Alibaba Group reports fiscal Q2 earnings early Tuesday, capping a so-so earnings season for China’s tech giants. Analysts expect earnings to decline by more than 60%, while sales are seen rising 3%, according to FactSet. Analysts will be watching the costs of Alibaba’s “instant commerce” battle with JD.com (JD) and Meituan. Discounts and other investments in that business have eaten into earnings for both companies. Alibaba’s cloud business will also be in focus, as the company spends to establish its Qwen large language models as the global leader. Cloud is Alibaba’s fastest-growing segment, with analysts projecting 28% growth for the September quarter.

Alibaba Stock, AI Server Giant Dell Headline Thanksgiving Earnings Calendar

Retail: Not All Earnings Take A Holiday

Thanksgiving week will be another busy week for retail earnings. Kohl’s (KSS), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington Stores (BURL), Dick’s Sporting Goods, Urban Outfitters (URBN), Five Below (FIVE) and Buckle (BKE) are due to report. Burlington is just below a buy point. It and Five Below have the best looking charts of the group.

Ross Stores Rallies After Beating Views, As Discounters Tap This Shopping Trend

$1 Trillion Worth Of Holiday Cheer

Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, marks the traditional launch of the U.S. holiday shopping season. More and more retailers are pressuring that tradition. Amazon.com (AMZN) launched its Black Friday sales on the 20th. Walmart (WMT) starts on Tuesday the 25th. The National Retail Federation expects this season’s sales to top last year by between 3.7% and 4.2%. That would put this year’s holiday take at $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, vs. $976 billion during the 2024 holidays. The NRF reports that a record 186.9 million people plan to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, up more than three million shoppers vs. the same period last year.

Automotive: Car Culture’s Cutting Edge

Detroit is undisputedly the Motor City for automakers. But Los Angeles is the world capital of car culture. So auto analysts and enthusiasts keep a close eye on the Los Angeles Auto Show, which launched Thursday and runs through the end of the month. Hyundai and Kia are so far key newsmakers. Hyundai was preparing the launch of a hush-hush concept car. Kia is introducing a revamped version of its popular Telluride SUV. EV maker Lucid (LCID) is reportedly set to introduce a base trim model of its Gravity crossover SUV. Estimated base price, $81,550. A fully-decked out Gravity Dream Edition will also be available for 2026, with its sticker weighing in at $141,550.

Stock Market Earnings Bullets

Deere stock butted up against resistance at its 200-day moving average ahead of its fiscal Q4 report on Wednesday. Expectations are low, but Wells Fargo on Nov. 13 initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a 543 price target, 12% above where shares traded on Friday. Deere’s installed base of subscription retrofit precision ag products is key, the note said.

Zscaler (ZS) reports fiscal Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Analysts project the Cybersecurity firm’s adjusted EPS growth slowing to 11%, with revenue gains holding steady at 23%. Analysts will look for management commentary on plans to integrate Red Canary, a provider of managed threat detection and response services, recently acquired. Berenberg initiated coverage on Tuesday with a buy rating and a 400 price target, 48% above where shares traded on Friday.

Dell Technologies and HP (HPQ) will report their quarterly results after the stock market closes on Tuesday. The computer makers both face concerns of shrinking profit margins due to soaring memory chip prices. Dell is seen growing earnings and sales 16% and 12%, respectively, on a year over year basis. HP earnings are expected to decline 10% while sales increase 3%.

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT) reports third-quarter results on Tuesday. Analysts expect the China hotel chain operator to post earnings of 3.35 yuan per American share, up 20% year-over-year. Sales are seen rising 30% to $2.46 billion yuan, according to FactSet. ATAT stock is ahead 36% this year despite a recent pullback.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE:

Carpeting-Bombing Cancer Makes Way For ‘Smart Bombs’

Looking For The Next Big Stock Market Winners? Start With These 3 Steps

IBD Stock Of The Day: See How To Find, Track And Buy The Best Stocks

See IBD Stock Lists & Get Pass/Fail Ratings For All Your Stocks With IBD Digital

Stocks Bounce, But Wait For This; Three Titans In Focus

View this Investor’s Business Daily CLICK HERE