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Dow Jones Futures Rise, Google Jumps; All Eyes On Nvidia Earnings

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Dow Jones futures climbed slightly Sunday night, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures rose modestly. All eyes will be on Nvidia (NVDA) earnings this week.

The stock market saw some wild swings last week, with the Dow Jones hitting a record high followed by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly undercutting their 50-day lines. Thanks to another Friday bounce off lows, the major indexes were narrowly mixed for the week. But many growth stocks suffered sharp, damaging losses, notably Tesla (TSLA). Many high-beta AI stock sold off hard.

↑Stocks Bounce Off Lows To End Wild Week, Nvidia Looms; Valero, CME Also In FocusSee All Videos

Nvidia stock held onto a buy zone, but its earnings and guidance will be critical for the AI ecosystem and struggling market rally.

Late Friday, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) disclosed a new $4.3 billion stake in Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL). Google stock rose 4% after the close.

Valero Energy (VLO) and MongoDB (MDB) also are in buy zones, with GE Aerospace (GE) and Nu Holdings (NU) just below buy points.

Investors should be cautious in this tricky market, especially ahead of Nvidia earnings.

Nvidia stock is on the IBD 50. MongoDB stock is on the IBD Big Cap 20.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures were up 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%, with GOOGL stock offering a lift.

Crude oil futures fell 1%.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

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Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally had a whipsaw week. The indexes started with big gains as Congress moved toward reopening the government, with the shutdown ending Wednesday night. The Dow Jones hit a record Wednesday, but then growth stocks and small caps sold off hard Thursday on valuation concerns and waning Fed rate-cut hopes.

On Friday, stocks rebounded off lows, though they faded into the close. The major indexes ended the week narrowly mixed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.3% in last week’s stock market trading, low in its range. The S&P 500 index edged up 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite declined 0.45%, both holding the 50-day line after undercutting it Friday morning. The small-cap Russell 2000 gave up 1.8%, well below the 50-day.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) dipped 0.1% and the First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF (QQEW) fell 0.4%, both ending below their 50-day lines after regaining that key level during the week.

Meanwhile, many leaders suffered damaging losses. Tesla stock tumbled 5.9% for the week while bitcoin miner turned AI data center play Iren (IREN) dived 25.7%. Both fell decisively below their 50-day lines. Even growth names that held up for the week often suffered ugly chart action that suggests significant repair time.

On the upside, a variety of medicals have acted well, along with refiners and gold plays. Big financials are doing OK, but weren’t immune to the market’s whipsaw action.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.5 basis points to 4.15%. The government reopening and cautious Fed comments cut the odds for a December rate cut to below 50-50. The September jobs report will be released on Thursday morning.

U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.6% to $60.09 a barrel last week.

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ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) dived 7% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) retreated 1.9%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) only lost 0.9%. Nvidia stock is the No. 1 holding in SMH.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) tumbled 4.7% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) sank 4.1%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) sank 1.8% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) popped 2.8%, with Valero stock an important holding. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) ran up 3.9%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) declined 0.9%, with GE stock the top holding.

The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) shed 0.6%.

Nvidia Earnings Loom

Nvidia earnings due Wednesday night will be strong. CEO Jensen Huang has made it clear that demand for Nvidia’s AI processors are hot. A big issue is whether Nvidia can ramp up supply sufficiently.

For investors, will Nvidia earnings, guidance and commentary be strong enough to meet or beat high expectations? A positive reaction to Nvidia earnings could trigger huge gains for NVDA stock but also the ailing AI ecosystem. A negative reaction could trigger widespread selling.

Nvidia stock rose 1.1% to 190.17 in a roller-coaster week, still holding a 184.48 flat-base buy point and the 50-day line.

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Stocks In, Near Buy Zones

Valero Energy stock climbed 3.4% on Friday to 181.76, back above a 178.43 buy point from flat base, base-on-base pattern. Several refining stocks are in or above buy zones.

MongoDB stock fell 12.3% to 352.61 for the week, giving up Monday’s bounce, but rebounded Friday to hold a 344.85 flat-base buy point and 21-day line, according to MarketSurge. Some leading software stocks held up better than many tech names.

Nu Holdings stock dipped 0.3% to 15.82 for the week, rebounding 1.5% on Friday to reclaim the 50-day line. Friday’s bounce came as the Brazilian digital bank reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings. NU stock has a 16.43 buy point next to the top of a long consolidation. It also now has a three-weeks-tight with a 16.55 entry.

GE Aerospace stock edged down 0.8% to 304.82 for the week, reversing fractionally higher Friday after undercutting the 50-day for the first time since late April. GE stock now has a four-weeks-tight with a 316.67 buy point. Investors could use the Nov. 10 high of 313.76 as an energy

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What To Do Now

The stock market rally ended up with modest weekly moves on the major indexes, but it was a tough week. Small caps, RSP, QQEW and many leading stocks are below their 50-day lines.

Yes, growth stocks led Friday’s upside reversal. But they also led the declines on Thursday and early Friday. Many are well below key levels and need time to repair their charts.

And, after several short-lived market bounces in recent weeks, investors should be suitably cautious about Friday’s positive action. It’s hard to have an edge in a whipsaw market.

Investors shouldn’t be especially wary about new tech buys before Nvidia earnings.

Definitely have drug, biotech and medical products/systems stocks on your watchlists, as well as gold, financial and even some software names. More broadly, pay close attention to stocks that are showing relative strength. But if the market sours, relative winners will likely be absolute losers.

In addition to Nvidia, many retailers report this coming week, including Walmart (WMT) and TJX Cos. (TJX).

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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