China Registers Worst Investment Decline in Years as Slowdown Continues
Consumption also slowed, with retail sales on their longest run of decelerating growth since 2021
By Hannah Miao
Updated Nov. 14, 2025 12:37 am ET
China’s GDP expanded 5.2% over the first nine months of the year. Sheldon Cooper/SOPA Images/Zuma Press
Quick Summary
- China’s retail sales increased by 2.9% in October year-over-year, a decrease from 3.0% in September, marking the fifth consecutive month of deceleration.View more
SHANGHAI—Signs of weakness in China’s economy stretched into October, with one measure of investment notching the sharpest slowdown in years.
The numbers
Momentum in retail sales and industrial production slowed, while investment and the property market continued to struggle, according to data released Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
- Retail sales: +2.9% in October from the prior year, down from +3.0% in September
- Industrial production: +4.9% in October from a year prior, down from +6.5% in September
- Fixed-asset investment: -1.7% in the January-to-October period compared with the same period in 2024, widening from -0.5% in the first three quarters of the year
- Property investment: -14.7% in the January-to-October period from the same period in 2024, widening from -13.9% in the first three quarters
- Average home prices in 70 cities: -2.6% in October from a year prior, compared with -2.7% in September
- Urban unemployment rate: 5.1% in October, down from 5.2% in September
Earlier this month, China reported an unexpected contraction in exports in October. Producer prices also remained in negative territory for more than three years.
The context
The January-to-October drop in fixed-asset investment marks the first time the country has seen a decline over the first 10 months of the year, stretching back to at least 1992.
While drawing historical comparisons is made difficult by methodological changes over the years, the only time fixed-asset investment declined on a year-to-date basis—aside from the past two months—was during the Covid pandemic in 2020.
Retail momentum in China has slowed. Tingshu Wang/Reuters
The drop in investment might reflect ongoing efforts to combat “involution,” a phenomenon of excessive competition and price wars. China has been discouraging new investment in oversaturated sectors, such as steel and electric vehicles.
Retail sales, a key gauge of consumer spending, have slowed for five consecutive months as of October, the longest streak of deceleration since 2021.
Elevated sales a year ago help explain the slowdown. China rolled out a consumer-goods subsidy program last year, which pulled forward purchases of items such as household appliances, creating a higher base of comparison now.
China’s economy is still largely on track to meet Beijing’s targets; gross domestic product expanded 5.2% over the first nine months of the year, and Beijing is aiming for growth of “around 5%” for 2025. But policymakers could step up support if the economy were to further weaken.
The outlook
A trade detente between Beijing and Washington reached last month could offer some relief to China’s export sector. The U.S. agreed to reduce fentanyl-related tariffs from 20% to 10% in return for China’s assurances that it would reduce shipments of fentanyl precursors.
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China’s top policymakers recently made recommendations for the country’s next five-year plan, which will guide the world’s second-largest economy through the rest of the decade. High-end technology, advanced manufacturing and increased consumption are among the priorities outlined.
An official Chinese guidebook published recently said that real GDP growth will need to average 4.17% or more over the next 10 years to reach the per capita GDP of a midlevel developed country by 2035.
Grace Zhu and Xiao Xiao contributed to this article.
Write to Hannah Miao at hannah.miao@wsj.com
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