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Article Provided by Wall Street Journal

Updated March 24, 2025 6:14 pm ET

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The WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.15 point or 0.15% today to 99.72

—Up for four consecutive trading days

–Up 0.80 point or 0.81% over the last four trading days

–Largest four-day point and percentage gain since Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

–Longest winning streak since Friday, Jan. 10, 2025, when the market rose for four straight trading days

–Off 5.16% from its record close of 105.14 hit Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022

–Highest closing value since Tuesday, March 4, 2025

–Off 3.75% from its 52-week high of 103.61 hit Friday, Jan. 10, 2025

–Up 4.63% from its 52-week low of 95.31 hit Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

–Rose 0.88% from 52 weeks ago

–Month-to-date it is down 1.99%

–Year-to-date it is down 3.03 points or 2.95%

Data based on 5 p.m. ET values

Source: Tullett Prebon and Dow Jones Market Data

Dollar Gain as U.S. Growth Fears Ease

1550 ET – Treasury yields and the dollar rise as Wall Street’s mood improves on reports that Trump might scale back next week’s promised wave of tariffs. Slightly better-than-expected U.S. PMI surveys also contribute to rekindle investors’ animal spirits. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect housing data due tomorrow to show resilience in home prices and sales. The Richmond Fed activity survey and the Conference Board consumer confidence index are expected to slip. The 10-year rises 0.080 percentage point, to 4.330%, and the two-year gains 0.088 p.p., its largest one-day rise since January, to 4.034%. The WSJ Dollar Index is up 0.1%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

Dollar Jumps on U.S. PMI Surveys

1039 ET – Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen as flash U.S. PMI shows signs of resilience in an economy feared to be slowing under the weight of tariffs. March manufacturing PMI was slower than expected, falling to 49,8 from February’s 51.6, while services was stronger than consensus, rising to 54.3 from 49.7. Economists surveyed by WSJ expected 51.5 for both surveys. The index gauging both sectors rises to 53.5 from 51.6. Treasury yields were already trending higher but jumped further after the data. The 10-year is at 4.320%. The WSJ Dollar Index was falling and is now rising 0.2%. The greenback strengthens 0.1% against the euro and 0.7% versus the yen. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

Euro Faces Short-Term Setback After German Fiscal Boost

1415 GMT – The euro could fall further in the near term as Germany’s fiscal stimulus plans could take time to boost economic growth, Rabobank’s Jane Foley says in a note. German growth was revised higher from 2026 onwards following the country’s fiscal turnaround but 2025 could remain “seeped in stagnation,” she says. The euro also faces a hit from President Trump’s plans for reciprocal tariffs on April 2 and higher borrowing costs in Germany that have spilled over into other European bonds. The euro could fall further over the next one to three months before rising to $1.12 in one year, she says. The euro hits a two-and-a-half-week low of $1.0791 after a better-than-expected U.S. purchasing managers’ survey, according to FactSet. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Dollar Little Changed Ahead of U.S. Data

0915 ET – Dollar indexes hover around stable as the Trump administration is reportedly scaling down its next round of tariffs, while markets worry about the U.S. economy. Data due this week are likely to move currency markets, starting with housing numbers tomorrow. Wednesday, February durable goods orders are expected to shrink 1%, after expanding 3.1% in January, according to a WSJ poll. A new 4Q GDP estimate on Thursday is expected to remain at 2.3% and 12-month PCE inflation Friday is forecast to keep January’s pace or 2.5%. The WSJ Dollar Index and ICE’s DXY are both little changed, as the greenback weakens 0.1% versus the euro and strengthens 0.3% against the yen. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

U.K. Budget Could Dent Sterling on Any Missteps

1124 GMT – Sterling is at risk of falling if the U.K. budget on Wednesday disappoints the market, ING analyst Francesco Pesole says in a note. Expected spending cuts should be enough to meet the U.K.’s fiscal rule, he says. However, any missteps in the “very tight room for fiscal manoeuvring” that lead to a negative reaction in U.K. government bonds or a sharp fall in U.K. economic growth expectations could hit sterling. The euro could rise above the recent highs near 0.8450 this week, he says. The exchange rate falls 0.2% to 0.8368. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Investors Buying Dollar For Quarter-End Rebalancing

1051 GMT – Investors have been buying the dollar to rebalance portfolios ahead of the end of the month and quarter, Barclays analysts say in a note. The bank’s proprietary rebalancing model indicates a strong dollar buying signal by month-end and moderate purchases by quarter-end. Concerns over slowing U.S. economic data and heightened trade uncertainty saw U.S. equities and the dollar sell off in March. This increased the dollar value of assets outside the U.S. and thus the need to buy dollars for rebalancing, they say. Strong month-end dollar purchases follow the significant underperformance of U.S. equities. Quarter-end dollar purchases are more limited as a relatively resilient January for equities offset first-quarter losses, although there’s strong buying versus the euro. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Sterling Edges Higher After U.K. Composite PMI Beats Forecasts

1010 GMT – Sterling rises marginally after a measure of U.K. services and manufacturing activity in March exceeded expectations. The U.K. composite purchasing mangers’ index rose to 52.0 in March from 50.5 in February, according to S&P’s flash estimate. Economists in a WSJ survey expected 50.0. A level above 50 indicates growth in business activity. This brings some good news for the U.K. government ahead of Wednesday’s budget, offering some respite from the recent flow of downbeat economic data, S&P economist Chris William says in the survey’s press release. However, one good PMI “doesn’t signal a recovery.” Sterling rises to $1.2970 after the data, from $1.2950 beforehand. The euro falls to 0.8360 pounds from 0.8369 beforehand.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Euro Pares Gains After Eurozone PMI Data

0918 GMT – The euro pares gains slightly after a key measure of eurozone services and manufacturing activity missed expectations. The eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index rose to 50.4 in March from 50.2 in February. Economists in a WSJ survey had expected a reading of 50.7. A level above 50 still signals growth, however. The survey also showed both input costs and output charges rose at slower rates. The eurozone data follow a better-than-expected French composite PMI for March and a below-forecast German composite PMI. The euro last trades up 0.2% at $1.0837, compared to $1.0845 before the eurozone PMI. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Sterling Looks Vulnerable Ahead of U.K. Budget

0749 GMT – Sterling rises as the dollar eases, but these gains look vulnerable ahead of the U.K. budget on Wednesday, Swissquote Bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. The budget will likely confirm that U.K. Treasury chief Rachel Reeves is left with less than 10 billion pounds of budget headroom to boost economic growth, she says. This means Reeves will either hint at higher taxes or less spending. “Both are negative for growth.” Sterling may struggle to rise above $1.30 even as the dollar weakens given currency traders’ increased focus on growth expectations, she says. Sterling rises 0.4% to $1.2946. The euro falls 0.2% to 0.8376 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Dollar Resumes Falls After Brief Reprieve

0745 GMT – The dollar trades softer after a modest recovery in recent days as investors look ahead to U.S. economic data amid concerns about slowing growth. With the dollar’s depreciation having come a long way, it is no surprise investors took profits in recent days, Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown says in a note. However, any dollar gains probably won’t be sustained as the idea of U.S. exceptionalism is over and the currency is the most exposed to the “ongoing circus around tariffs.” Investors will be monitoring the U.S. purchasing managers’ survey at 1345 GMT for any evidence of weakness in economic activity. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 103.946 after hitting a two-week high of 104.223 on Friday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)